How Democracy Can Work in the Middle East

When Frank Wisner, the seasoned U.S. diplomat and envoy of President Obama, met with Hosni Mubarak on Tuesday, Feb. 1, the scene must have been familiar to both men. For 30 years, American diplomats would enter one of the lavish palaces in Heliopolis, the neighborhood in Cairo from which Mubarak ruled Egypt. The Egyptian President would receive the American warmly, and the two would begin to talk about American-Egyptian relations and the fate of Middle East peace. Then the American might gently raise the issue of political reform. The President would tense up and snap back, "If I do what you want, the Islamic fundamentalists will seize power." The conversation would return to the latest twist in the peace process.

It is quite likely that a version of this exchange took place on that Tuesday. Mubarak would surely have warned Wisner that without him, Egypt would fall prey to the radicalism of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's Islamist political movement. He has often reminded visitors of the U.S.'s folly in Iran in 1979, when it withdrew support for a staunch ally, the Shah, only to see the regime replaced by a nasty anti-American theocracy. But this time, the U.S. diplomat had a different response to the Egyptian President's arguments. It was time for the transition to begin.

And that was the message Obama delivered to Mubarak when the two spoke on the phone on Feb. 1. "It was a tough conversation," said an Administration official. Senior national-security aides gathered around a speakerphone in the Oval Office to listen to the call. Mubarak made it clear how difficult the uprising had been for him personally; Obama pressed the Egyptian leader to refrain from any violent response to the hundreds of thousands in the streets. But a day later, those streets — which had been remarkably peaceful since the demonstrations began — turned violent. In Cairo, Mubarak supporters, some of them wading into crowds on horseback, began battering protesters.

It was a reminder that the precise course that Egypt's revolution will take over the next few days and weeks cannot be known. The clashes between the groups supporting and opposing the government mark a new phase in the conflict. The regime has many who live off its patronage, and they could fight to keep their power. But the opposition is now energized and empowered. And the world — and the U.S. — has put Mubarak on notice.

Whatever happens in the next few days will not change the central narrative of Egypt's revolution. Historians will note that Jan. 25 marked the start of the end of Mubarak's 30-year reign. And now we'll test the theory that politicians and scholars have long debated. Will a more democratic Egypt become a radical Islamic state? Can democracy work in the Arab world?

(source: time.com)
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045888,00.html#ixzz1EMKycZwG

Peaceful Protests and Unrest Spread in the Middle East Countries

From northern Africa to the Persian Gulf, governments appeared to flounder over just how to outrun mostly peaceful movements, spreading erratically like lava erupting from a volcano, with no predictable end.

The protests convulsed half a dozen countries across the Middle East on Wednesday, with tens of thousands of people turning out in Bahrain to challenge the monarchy, a sixth day of running street battles in Yemen, continued strikes over long-suppressed grievances in Egypt and a demonstrator’s funeral in Iran turning into a brief tug of war between the government and its opponents.

Even in heavily policed Libya, pockets of dissent emerged in the main square of Benghazi, with people calling for an end to the 41-year rule of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. Iraq, accustomed to sectarian conflict, got a dose of something new: a fiery protest in the eastern city of Kut over unemployment, sporadic electricity and government corruption. And the protesters in Bahrain were confronted Thursday morning by riot police officers who rushed into the main square in Manama firing tear gas and concussion grenades.

The unrest has been inspired partly by grievances unique to each country, but many shared a new confidence, bred in Egypt and Tunisia, that a new generation could challenge unresponsive authoritarian rule in ways their parents thought impossible.

Leaders fell back on habitual, ineffective formulas. A ban on strikes announced by the week-old military government in Egypt was ignored. The Yemeni president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, called his Bahraini counterpart, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, to commiserate about the region’s falling victim to “foreign agendas,” according to the state-run Saba news agency.

“There are schemes aimed at plunging the region into chaos and violence targeting the nation’s security and the stability of its countries,” the news agency quoted Mr. Saleh as telling the king.

On one hand, each protest was inspired by a distinctive set of national circumstances and issues — dire poverty and a lack of jobs, ethnic and religious differences, minority rule, corruption, or questions of economic status.

But there was also a pervasive sense that a shared system of poor governance by one party, one family or one clique of military officers backed by brutal secret police was collapsing. A new generation has served notice that the social contract in play in the decades since independence around World War II was no longer valid.

Much of the generation in their 40s and 50s tried to effect change, but first accepted the empty promises of the rulers that change was coming. When it did not, many grew politically apathetic.

The protests are a fire alarm that the promises are not going to work anymore, said Sawsan al-Shaer, a Bahraini columnist. But governments that have stuck around for 20 to 40 years are slow to realize that, she said.

“Now the sons are coming, the new generation, and they are saying, ‘I don’t care that my father agreed with you — I am asking for more, and I am asking for something else,’ ” Ms. Shaer said.

Most rulers have surrounded themselves with a tight coterie of advisers and security officers for so long that they believe the advice that just a few young people are knocking around outside and will tire in good time, she said, even after the fall of the presidents in Tunisia and Egypt.

“The rulers don’t realize there is a new generation who want a better job, who want to ask what is happening, where did you spend the money?” Ms. Shaer said. “My father did not ask. I want to ask.”

The growing population throughout the 3,175-mile zone from Tehran to Tangier, Morocco, has changed too much, analysts believe, for the old systems to work.

“There is a contradiction between educating a lot of your population and creating a white-collar middle class and then ruling with an iron hand,” said Juan R. Cole, a professor of Middle East studies at the University of Michigan.

The continued eruptions present a particular challenge to the United States. It is caught between broadly supporting democracy in the region and tolerating the stability guaranteed by despots, analysts said. In addition, its ability to influence events is particularly limited with foes like Iran.

President Obama’s administration was accused of waffling on Egypt, trying to please the protesters while not really pushing President Hosni Mubarak, a longtime ally of the United States, to leave. It faces a similar dilemma in Bahrain, a crucial base for the United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet.

“For decades, the U.S. sort of prioritized stability over democracy because of oil and Israel,” said Marwan Muasher, a former foreign minister of Jordan who is the head of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The current policy is not sustainable,” he said, but changing it toward so many countries at once will be neither easy nor quick. (source: The New York Times)

Egypt's Army dissolved Parliament, Old Cabinet became caretaker for 6-months

Egypt's military has dissolved parliament and suspended the constitution, two days after Hosni Mubarak, the long-serving president, stepped down in the wake of a popular uprising. The country's Supreme Council of Armed Forces announced on Sunday that it would remain in charge of the country for six months until a new government is formed.


The military council announced the move in a statement on state television, adding that it would form a panel to amend the constitution before submitting the changes to a popular referendum. The announcement came shortly after Egypt's prime minister announced that the cabinet appointed by Mubarak shortly before he stepped down, would stay in place.


Ahmed Shafiq, speaking after his first cabinet meeting since Mubarak left on Friday, said Egypt's caretaker government will remain for the country's transition towards democracy. He said that security would remain a priority and pledged to fight corruption and restore peace in the country, following 18 days of pro-democracy protests.


"The first priority for this government is to restore security and to facilitate daily life for its citizens," he said. "I guarantee that this [cabinet] will return rights to the people and fight corruption."


Military in charge
Al Jazeera's James Bays, reporting from Cairo, said the two announcements do not indicate that the prime minister and military council are talking against each other. But it is "quite clear that the power now rests entirely" with the military council, he said. "They've taken on the role of the presidency and the prime minister and the other ministers carry out their orders.


"The key point is the military is saying they are only in power for a temporary basis, for six months or they'll go earlier if elections are called before six months. But our correspondent noted that "one thing that wasn't in that communique that protesters have asked for, was the repeal of emergency laws".


Protest organisers had called for both the dissolution of parliament and the lifting of a 30-year-old state of emergency. Some protesters have vowed to remain in Cairo's Tahrir Square - the epicentre of the uprising - until all of their demands are met. Scuffles broke out early on Sunday as soldiers tried to remove activists from the square. Soldiers shoved pro-democracy protesters aside to force a path for traffic to start flowing through Tahrir Square for the first time in more than two weeks.


Our correspondent in Cairo said the confrontations between troops and protesters was something of a "flashpoint".
"I think it reflects a bigger problem, that the military believes that now Mubarak is out, it's time for stability," he said. "But some of the protesters think not enough has been done yet. They don't want to clear that square until the army has handed over to a civilian government."


Police protest
At one point a group of several dozen police officers marched into the square bearing flowers, proclaiming their solidarity with the uprising and chanting: "The police and the people! With one hand!". But they were soon chased away by protesters, who accuse the police of decades of arbitrary arrests, torture and extortion, as well as a heavy-handed attempt to crush the revolt that left hundreds dead.


Elsewhere, even as the demonstrations against Mubarak wound down, new challenges emerged as workers went on strike. In the latest such moves, employees at two public sector banks in Cairo went on strike demanding better pay. In addition, about 2,000 policemen demonstrated in front of the Interior Ministry, complaining about the gap in salaries between officers and enlisted.


Egypt's state news agency said that in light of the strikes, the Central Bank decided it will suspend work in banks on Monday. Banks will reopen on Wednesday, because Tuesday is also a public holiday.
Meanwhile, normality began to return to other parts of Egypt. The tents, where protesters camped out during the 18 days of protests, were removed from Tahrir Square.


In the northern city of Alexandria, Al Jazeera's Jamal ElShayyal said people had also begun to get back to work, adding that Sunday's military announcement was likely to reassure activists in the city.
"Alexandria didn't have the same amount of sit-in protesters that we've seen in Tahrir. However those that have said they will continue their demonstrations have been assured a lot more by this time frame given by the military."


But Ashraf Ahmed, a protester in Cairo, vowed that he was not going to leave "because so much still needs to be done. They haven't implemented anything yet". Protest organisers have threatened more rallies if the governing military council fails to accept their agenda for reform. "If the army does not fulfil our demands, our uprising and its measures will return stronger," Safwat Hegazi, a protest leader, said. (source: Aljazeera)

New Egypt: The need to match US Principles and US Interests in Egypt

With every step of the crisis in Egypt, US President Barack Obama has been cautious in his comments, walking the fine line between being on the right side of history and not appearing to dictate the outcome.  In his comments after Mubarak stepped down, Obama reiterated the message that Egypt's future will be determined by Egyptians. "By stepping down, President Mubarak responded to the Egyptian people’s hunger for change.  But this is not the end of Egypt’s transition.  It’s a beginning," the president said.

But despite his comments on Friday, throughout the crisis, Obama left himself open to the charge that his administration has been inconsistent in its approach.

Two days after the first protests in Cairo, vice-president Joe Biden said he wouldn't refer to Mubarak as a dictator. Then Barack Obama took over the public face of the administration's response to the crisis, making frequent comments and not leaving the messaging to his foreign policy team. 

A week after the demonstrations started, Obama came out to say that "an orderly transition must be meaningful, must be peaceful, and must begin now."  But the administration never said Mubarak should step down and at one point indicated that they'd support him staying on until September.

For all Obama's speeches and statements, it's unclear that the administration had much of an idea of what was going on in Cairo. As the world watched the announcement that Mubarak had stepped down, Obama was in a meeting. He was given a note with the news. Then he watched some of the reaction in Cairo on TV (although not on Al Jazeera English).

According to press secretary Robert Gibbs, the administration was as confused as the rest of the world on Thursday with the rumours that Mubarak was ready to leave. Gibbs said at Friday's daily press briefing: "The very same contacts that we have in Egypt are some of the very same contacts that many of you all had that seemed to tell everyone that a different speech might be what we would hear." Apparently the US government didn't have any better intelligence than the media.

The White House has spent the last 18 days trying to square US principles with US interests in the region. Officials often seemed quick to offer an opinion. Whenever the charge of inconsistency was levelled, the administration reminded us of Obama's speech in Cairo in 2009 championing democracy and modernity and secretary of state Hillary Clinton's comments several weeks ago in Doha in support of civil society building throughout the Arab world. But despite the rhetoric, the Obama administration cut funding for civil society development in Egypt in 2009.

The realisation of the desires of the people of Egypt was a moment that should have been more presidential for Obama. He made a speech or released a statement with every twist and turn in the process. He didn't let his foreign policy team lead so when there were nuances, it looked like waffling from the President. Then when Mubarak left and Obama had a chance to make an inspiring statement, the speech he delivered sounded a lot like what we'd already heard. And it didn't cement his role as a world leader during a crisis. 

Even a reference in the speech to the ideals of slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr wasn't enough. Obama said: "Egyptians have inspired us ... it was the moral force of nonviolence - not terrorism, not mindless killing - but nonviolence, moral force that bent the arc of history towards justice once more."

Now the intersection between principles and interests has moved beyond the fierce urgency of now. The Obama administration will have to regroup and come up with a new policy towards Egypt as both nations wake up on Saturday with a whole new set of challenges. 

Mubarak resigned. The victory of the People Power and Egypt's Revolution 2011

 Latest news from Egypt said that President Hosni Mubarak and his family had run themselves into the rich Egyptian resort, Sharm El Shiekh is on the edge of the Mediterranean coast. The incident happened Thursday night after February 10, 2011 President Mubarak delivered a speech which clearly state that he would not resign DARP President of Egypt, although stating also that some of his power had he limpahkan to Vice President Omar Suleiman. 


This speech made the Pro-democracy demonstrators whose numbers reach several million people, became disillusioned and angry, which is expected because the demonstrator seek Mubarak's resignation from the presidency, and change the current regime with a democratic government. Since Friday morning surrounded the demonstrators to move a TV station in Cairo, Parliament House, Presidential Palace and the offices of the Egyptian Government. Before the siege, it seems that Mubarak and his family fled their secretly to Sharm El Sheikh, most likely using the presidential helicopter.


Finally, the Board of the Egyptian armed forces took power, and was followed by Mubarak's announcement of resignation by Vice President Omar Suleiman through Egypt TV. This is the result of the Egyptian Revolution that forced Mubarak to step down on Friday night, February 11, 2011, which became a new milestone for Egypt and the Arab World in the Middle East. 


By coincidence, the day of victory of the Egyptian Revolution coincided with the anniversary of the Iranian revolution 32 years ago. The Iranian government welcomed the Egyptian Revolution as a "Great Victory" for all the people of the Middle East. The rise President Hosni Mubarak took after the shooting of the President of Egypt before, Anwar Sadat by Egyptian military officers who were angry over the signing of the Peace Treaty with Israel. Next Mubarak supports the continued Western policy in the Middle East, and isolating Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, closed the Palestinian-Egyptian border. He later signed an agreement on the distribution of oil to Isreal who opposed many of the people of the Middle East and against the policy of other Arab countries. 


President Barack Obama congratulated the People's victory over Mubarak of Egypt and the collapse of Egypt's authoritarian regime that lasted for 30-years. Obama praised the success of the Egyptian revolution without violence, and hope for the Egyptian Army to make the transition to a Democratic administration in a peaceful and orderly manner, without violence and terrorism. This is "The Power of Human Dignity" that no one can prevent. He praised the example of People Power that brought the era of Democratic Governance, such as the Fall of Berlin Wall, and the Reform of Indonesia in 1998 by the Indonesian Students, as well as non-violent movement of Mahatma Gadhi. Obama promised to give whatever assistance to the progress of the People of Egypt Egypt today. But Obama's promise is to go through the tight filter of the U.S. Parliament, because there are indications to stop military assistance to U.S. $ 1.5 billion per year during the Mubarak regime.


Indonesia People should also congratulate the Egyptian People's victory in the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 as soon as possible, because so long there was not voice from Indonesia.

Obama questions credibility of Egypt's action

WASHINGTON – Bristling with impatience, President Barack Obama on Thursday openly and sharply questioned whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's pledge to shift power to his vice president is an "immediate, meaningful or sufficient" sign of reform for a country in upheaval.

Without naming Mubarak, Obama issued a written statement that criticized the leader for not offering clarity to his people or a concrete path to democracy. He called on Egyptian government leaders to do so, declaring: "They have not yet seized that opportunity."

Obama's comments came after Mubarak, in a televised speech, refused to step down despite intense speculation that he was on the brink of ouster. He said he was delegating powers to Vice PresidentOmar Suleiman, yet Mubarak remained president and defiantly said he would so until a successor was elected to replace him in September. Protesters were shocked, saddened and enraged.

At the White House, Obama scrambled with his national security teamover how to respond to a speech that had left many surprised and even baffled. In his statement, Obama challenged Egypt's leaders to plainly explain what the new changes mean and how they would lead them to the freedoms or opportunities that have driven enormous crowds into the streets since late January.

"Too many Egyptians remain unconvinced that the government is serious about a genuine transition to democracy," Obama said, "and it is the responsibility of the government to speak clearly to the Egyptian people and the world."

Still, analysts and even U.S. officials themselves acknowledge the White House has limited power to shape what Egypt does.

Obama devoted most of statement to the familiar calls by his government for Egypt to respect the rights of its people and to immediately negotiate a path to free elections.

The fast-changing developments capped 17 days of mass anti-government protests, the strongest challenge ever to Mubarak's nearly 30 years of authoritarian rule. The White House has warned Egypt's leaders that they should not expect those protests to go away until they respond appropriately; at issue are deep concerns over repression, poverty and corruption.

The events seemed to catch many by surprise.

Before Mubarak's speech, CIA Director Leon Panetta told Congress there was "a strong likelihood" that the Egyptian leader was on the way out and could step down as early as Thursday night. Egypt's military had assured protesters that Mubarak would meet their demands.

Yet the Egyptian president stuck to a framework for reform that protesters have roundly rejected out of fear that it will mean only cosmetic change.

Earlier in the day, as anticipation grew by the hour, Obama said that what the United States wanted was transition to democracy in Egypt that was not just orderly but "genuine."

"What is absolutely clear is that we are witnessing history unfold," Obama said at the start of an overshadowed economic event in Michigan. "It's a moment of transformation that's taking place because the people of Egypt are calling for change."

In his address on state TV, Mubarak showed the strategy he has followed throughout the days of upheaval. He has made a series of largely superficial concessions while resolutely sticking to his refusal to step down immediately. And on Thursday, he said he would not give in to what he called foreign dictates.

Some U.S. officials responded sharply to that.

"President Mubarak's announcement that he will remain in power is deeply unfortunate and troubling," said Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona. "The voices of the Egyptian people are growing louder and more unified, and they are not demanding partial transfers of power or minor adjustments to the current government. They are calling for President Mubarak to step down."

Joel Rubin, a former State Department official under President George W. Bush, said Mubarak was directly referring to the United States on Thursday when he said he would not be pushed out by foreign powers.

"He's daring them," said Rubin, deputy director at the Washington-based National Security Network. "The White House will have a harder time messaging now because he's called their bluff."

Washington officials followed the unfolding drama in Cairo with hopeful expectation for a smooth transition — mixed with concern over the unpredictability of the developments.

"There is no question that what we are seeing happening in Egypt will have tremendous impact," Panetta told the House Intelligence Committee. "If it's done right, it will help us a great deal in trying to promote stability in that part of the world. If it happens wrong, it could create some serious problems for us and for the rest of the world."

The administration was also watching closely for developments that might affect U.S. aid to Egypt. A coup or other non-constitutional transfer of power could trigger a suspension in all non-humanitarian assistance. The U.S. is providing at least $1.5 billion annually to Egypt in military aid.

Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said Mubarak's speech left the fundamental situation in Egypt unchanged. "We cannot steer things," Haass said. "We have limited influence." (source: Associated Press)

Obama questions credibility of Egypt's action

WASHINGTON – Bristling with impatience, President Barack Obama on Thursday openly and sharply questioned whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's pledge to shift power to his vice president is an "immediate, meaningful or sufficient" sign of reform for a country in upheaval.

Without naming Mubarak, Obama issued a written statement that criticized the leader for not offering clarity to his people or a concrete path to democracy. He called on Egyptian government leaders to do so, declaring: "They have not yet seized that opportunity."

Obama's comments came after Mubarak, in a televised speech, refused to step down despite intense speculation that he was on the brink of ouster. He said he was delegating powers to Vice PresidentOmar Suleiman, yet Mubarak remained president and defiantly said he would so until a successor was elected to replace him in September. Protesters were shocked, saddened and enraged.

At the White House, Obama scrambled with his national security teamover how to respond to a speech that had left many surprised and even baffled. In his statement, Obama challenged Egypt's leaders to plainly explain what the new changes mean and how they would lead them to the freedoms or opportunities that have driven enormous crowds into the streets since late January.

"Too many Egyptians remain unconvinced that the government is serious about a genuine transition to democracy," Obama said, "and it is the responsibility of the government to speak clearly to the Egyptian people and the world."

Still, analysts and even U.S. officials themselves acknowledge the White House has limited power to shape what Egypt does.

Obama devoted most of statement to the familiar calls by his government for Egypt to respect the rights of its people and to immediately negotiate a path to free elections.

The fast-changing developments capped 17 days of mass anti-government protests, the strongest challenge ever to Mubarak's nearly 30 years of authoritarian rule. The White House has warned Egypt's leaders that they should not expect those protests to go away until they respond appropriately; at issue are deep concerns over repression, poverty and corruption.

The events seemed to catch many by surprise.

Before Mubarak's speech, CIA Director Leon Panetta told Congress there was "a strong likelihood" that the Egyptian leader was on the way out and could step down as early as Thursday night. Egypt's military had assured protesters that Mubarak would meet their demands.

Yet the Egyptian president stuck to a framework for reform that protesters have roundly rejected out of fear that it will mean only cosmetic change.

Earlier in the day, as anticipation grew by the hour, Obama said that what the United States wanted was transition to democracy in Egypt that was not just orderly but "genuine."

"What is absolutely clear is that we are witnessing history unfold," Obama said at the start of an overshadowed economic event in Michigan. "It's a moment of transformation that's taking place because the people of Egypt are calling for change."

In his address on state TV, Mubarak showed the strategy he has followed throughout the days of upheaval. He has made a series of largely superficial concessions while resolutely sticking to his refusal to step down immediately. And on Thursday, he said he would not give in to what he called foreign dictates.

Some U.S. officials responded sharply to that.

"President Mubarak's announcement that he will remain in power is deeply unfortunate and troubling," said Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona. "The voices of the Egyptian people are growing louder and more unified, and they are not demanding partial transfers of power or minor adjustments to the current government. They are calling for President Mubarak to step down."

Joel Rubin, a former State Department official under President George W. Bush, said Mubarak was directly referring to the United States on Thursday when he said he would not be pushed out by foreign powers.

"He's daring them," said Rubin, deputy director at the Washington-based National Security Network. "The White House will have a harder time messaging now because he's called their bluff."

Washington officials followed the unfolding drama in Cairo with hopeful expectation for a smooth transition — mixed with concern over the unpredictability of the developments.

"There is no question that what we are seeing happening in Egypt will have tremendous impact," Panetta told the House Intelligence Committee. "If it's done right, it will help us a great deal in trying to promote stability in that part of the world. If it happens wrong, it could create some serious problems for us and for the rest of the world."

The administration was also watching closely for developments that might affect U.S. aid to Egypt. A coup or other non-constitutional transfer of power could trigger a suspension in all non-humanitarian assistance. The U.S. is providing at least $1.5 billion annually to Egypt in military aid.

Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said Mubarak's speech left the fundamental situation in Egypt unchanged. "We cannot steer things," Haass said. "We have limited influence."